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Testing over a longer period of time like this allows you to see how the strategy performs during different market conditions.
If you only test in one type of market, you will get a very skewed look at the performance of the system.
For example, if you test a trend following system in a trending market, then of course it will do well! But if you also test it in a choppy market, then you get a much better idea of how much money it will lose.
We have established that backtesting can show you if a trading method has the potential to be profitable over a long period of time.
Just like a professional basketball player practices simple things like free throws, a professional trader also has to practice routine parts of their game.
That means practicing spotting opportunities. Backtesting can give you that practice, even when the markets are closed. You may think that this is not necessary, but if you don't keep your skills sharp, it can be easy to enter a trade that doesn't meet your criteria.
This video will give you a good illustration of how much more practice you can get with backtesting, compared to live trading.
This video demonstrates Forex Tester , but you can use whichever software works best for you. Of course, with practice, also comes confidence.
This is probably the most important result of backtesting. When you understand how often your system will win, your maximum drawdown and more, you will be able to pull the trigger on trades.
You will not be so hard on yourself when you lose a trade. By knowing what your advantage is, you also know when your advantage has stopped working or at least when you might be in market conditions that are not ideal for your trading system.
Knowing this will give you the confidence to stop. To learn the entire process of testing and optimizing a trading system, sign up for the TraderEvo Program.
Before we go any further, let's define a very important term associated with backtesting…curve fitting. This is when you backtest a system over a short period of time and over-optimize it for that time period.
If you created a trading system by only using the data in the green box, then you would have undoubtedly created a trend following system.
This trend following system probably would have been insanely profitable…during this time period. A regression to the mean or counter trend trading system probably would have worked better there.
So your trading system has to work in all types of market conditions. But that doesn't mean that you have to make money in all markets.
I know of some trend methods that take a lot of small losses in ranging markets, but get super aggressive in trending markets and make all that money back, and more.
Therefore, your trading system has to be ready in all trading environments. In time you should be able to identify certain clues that will tell you when your system has the advantage.
But if you are wrong, you need to get out with a small loss. Curve fitting can give you false confidence that a trading system is much better than it really is.
That is why forward testing is necessary too. To learn more about forward testing read this guide. Some people think that there is only one type of Forex backtesting.
They think that you have to know how to program and you have to write an automated trading system like an Expert Advisor EA.
This is because there are two types of backtesting: manual and automated. Here are some options that you can start to explore, depending on which one you are more drawn to.
Automated testing is when you create a program that automatically enters and exits trades for you.
There are programs that you can purchase, rent, download for free , or you can create these programs yourself. However, before you start developing an automated system, you need to take into account the downsides.
On the whole, I believe that automated trading is only for a small portion of independent traders. I could be wrong, but in my experience, most people are better suited to manual trading.
Even if you want to do automated trading, I believe that most people are better off starting with manual backtesting because it is easier to start and you get a better feel for a system.
However, if you are a programmer or engineering type to begin with, then you may be better suited to automated trading. Now that you understand automated and manual backtesting, it's time to decide which one is best for you.
You can always switch later. But if you do both at the same time, you are less likely to succeed. If you have tried a million different trading systems and none of them seem to work, then there is a reason for that.
Our training program teaches how to fix that. Yes, physical paper cards that had holes in them.
From this seemingly archaic mess, came the first system traders. If you haven't heard of him, be sure to read Market Wizards.
He used these crazy punch cards to test some trend following trading systems. And guess what, they worked! After his success, a long line of successful automated systems traders followed, including Michael Marcus and Dr.
David Druz. Now let's take a look at some Forex traders that I have interviewed that backtest their strategies. Listen very carefully to what they did and the types of systems that they tested.
You will get some great ideas. Alright, at this point, I hope that you are excited to get started. Let's start with the free options.
We live in a great time. Technology is getting better and cheaper. So if you have a very limited budget, then I have some great news!
You can start backtesting for free. Here are the simplest ways that I would recommend getting started. If manual trading and testing is your thing, then I would recommend starting with TradingView.
I like TradingView because there are no setups. Metatrader 4 is also free, but you have to install it and there can be some trouble with getting it to work right, especially on Mac or Linux.
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