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Bitcoin came under selling pressure late last week, not long after the U. Also since bitcoin is priced mostly in USD, I suspect the dollar rally is also adding some pressure.
Low expectations for equities come from a number of factors, traders say. Energy consumption, for example, is down, as a glut of oil is causing storage problems with supply far outpacing demand.
As for precious metals, since March 27, gold prices have been in a consolidation pattern, a behavior cryptocurrencies exhibited late last week after hours, once the traditional markets closed.
But traders remain on alert for news of record-breaking stimulus policies around the world that could stoke inflation, which theoretically should make bitcoin, with its predictable supply schedule, more attractive.
So market participants, from bitcoin miners and traders, are trying to fathom how the next halving might play out to gain an edge.
The fracture to the production of bitcoin provides a reminder of one reason why the decentralized digital currency has confounded regulation and acceptance by mainstream finance: Its fate remains tied to arcane technological factors.
In theory, if supply is cut and demand stays constant, prices rise. This time around, seven crypto traders and miners interviewed by Reuters said the May halving would probably lead to greater volatility and trading volumes.
However the cut to supply is liked to be more priced in than previously, they said, with many traders already geared up for the upcoming event.
They are rewarded with a set number of bitcoin, currently At current rates of block creation, the next halving will take place in May, when the number will drop to 6.
There are even miner-centric newsletters and podcasts. There is also a notable shift in the style and profile of bitcoin miners, towards more sophisticated structures and financial engineering.
Bitcoin mining is, too. Some leading derivatives exchanges are offering increasingly flexible products. Rather than the quarterly maturities most common in traditional options, bitcoin options are now available for a range of settlement dates , which gives producers more flexibility.
Going even further, some infrastructure participants are designing tools specifically for miners. And earlier this week, crypto data provider Coin Metrics unveiled a new type of hashrate index, which could remove some of the subjectivity of the traditional hashrate measure and serve as a basis for hashrate derivatives, allowing miners to hedge one of their main sources of uncertainty.
Outside of financial products, the business itself becoming more investable. Cloud mining removes the need to deal with hardware issues, and some unrelated businesses are entering the mining game.
These are significant, yes, but there is a growing array of tools to mitigate their impact, and the profile of the participants in the mining industry is becoming more diverse.
This adds resilience. The financialization of mining may dilute some of the original ethos of bitcoin as a decentralized, hard form of money; but the flexibility and relative stability it could add should make the market more resistant to protocol adjustments and price swings.
Maybe the market thinks the Fed will start buying shares? Also disconcerting are indications that the futures market is pricing in negative rates.
But is that enough to spook the market? Not yet. Momentum investing seems to be the ruling strategy. Just as well, since it was fleeting.
Crypto asset manager Bitwise has published a report that shows even a small allocation of bitcoin to multi-asset portfolios would have boosted cumulative returns, even if it was bought at the December high and rebalanced.
Given the hype around the potential price impact of the upcoming bitcoin block subsidy halving, many believe the price will continue to go up afterwards.
History shows that is not necessarily the case. Another could be an uptick in selling pressure as miners liquidate inventory to compensate the cut in income.
Some investors probably fear weakened network resilience as a sell-off could push even more miners out of the market.
So, the bitcoin price might continue its upward trend post-halving … or, it might see a correction.
Crypto data site Coin Metrics has created a hashrate index , intended to serve as the base for derivative products that could help miners and investors hedge their positions.